Incumbent Vice President Sara Duterte leads former Vice President Leni Robredo in a hypothetical matchup for the 2028 presidential elections, but the gap between them continues to narrow, according to an OCTA Research survey.

The third-quarter 2026 Tugon ng Masa survey showed Duterte leading with 40% voter preference, while Robredo received 33%.

The seven-point difference is the narrowest gap OCTA has recorded between the two.

Duterte’s lead has steadily declined in three consecutive survey waves:

  • Q1 2026: Duterte 46%, Robredo 35%

  • Q2 2026: Duterte 43%, Robredo 34%

  • Q3 2026: Duterte 40%, Robredo 33%

OCTA said Duterte’s support has dropped by six percentage points since the first quarter, while Robredo’s numbers have remained relatively stable.

Meanwhile, 26% of respondents were undecided or chose neither candidate, while 1% refused to answer.

Robredo leads in NCR, Class ABC and Class E

Despite trailing Duterte nationally, Robredo posted higher voter preference in the National Capital Region, leading 39% to 32%.

She also led among Class ABC respondents, with 40% against Duterte’s 32%.

In Class E, Robredo gained 11 percentage points from the previous quarter, reaching 42% and nearly matching Duterte’s 41%.

Duterte, however, maintained her lead in Mindanao and the Visayas, among rural residents, men, voters below 45 years old and Class D respondents.

OCTA stressed that the results reflect current public sentiment and are not a prediction of the May 2028 elections.

The face-to-face survey was conducted from Sept. 28 to Oct. 4, 2026, among 1,200 adults nationwide. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.